Monday, May 28, 2012

Climate Change Skeptics, Here’s a Lesson from Harappan Extinction


Many hypotheses have been floated after many, many years of work on what actually led to the collapse of Harappa, the largest Bronze Age Civilization and the earliest urban civilization that India has seen, some 5200 to 4500 years ago. Some said the invading Aryans destroyed it; others proposed that there were massive earthquakes which ruined the cities. Then there were some who suggested that rivers shifted course and left the cities on their banks to decay.
Now, a group of researchers, from mathematicians to geologists to archaeologists, report today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, there’s conclusive evidence that it was climate change which led to the extinction of the Harappan civilization.
“Our work shows that none of these is likely to be true. Rather, it was the shifting pattern of the monsoon, which receded towards the north and the east of the Indian continent which led to a drying up of the land in which the Harappans had made their civilisation, and this led to its collapse,” says Ronojoy Adhikari, a mathematician at The Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai.

Data analysis from multiples sources show that it was the gradual decrease in flood intensity that had encouraged urbanization around 4500 BC. However, further decline in monsoon precipitation made both inundation and rain-based farming difficult. For a long while it was believed that a large glacier-fed Himalayan river, which some have identified as the “mythical Saraswati” river, watered the Harappan heartland. The new research shows that only monsoonal-fed rivers were active in those days. And as the monsoon weakened, these rivers dried or became seasonal, impacting “habitability” along their courses.
Unlike the Egyptian and Mesopotamian civilizations, regions which were surrounded by deserts and hence restricted people’s movement forcing them to adapt and take action, harsh climate conditions led Harappan people to find an escape route. They moved eastwards, to the moister monsoon regions of upper Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, says Liviu Giosan, a geologist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts.
So, does this finding offer any lesson to the climate change skeptics?
Of course it does, say both Adhikari and Giosan.
Global warming is leading to a change in the glaciers in the Himalayas. It is also conjectured that the global warming will increase the intensity of the monsoons. This will lead to much greater floods in the monsoon-fed rivers of the Indo-Gangetic plain. Our
society may have to find out innovative technological measures to deal with such a situation, and it is in this context, that we consider the findings in our paper a “lesson from the past”, they say.
This result is “instructive”. As was the case in the Egyptian and Mesopotamian civilizations, people today hardly have any possibility to “move”. National borders and densely populated regions don’t provide the option of finding an escape route. Giosan, who researched inKarachi (unfortunately under protection) from 2003 to 2009, says the floods of 2010 inPakistan are a warning sign. “Monsoon is the life blood of India and other countries in the region but we don’t understand how it’s going to increase or decrease due to changing climate. The entire system of irrigation in this region is under calibrated,” he cautions.
However, there’s one more reason why this study is important. This work brings in several independent sources of data – sediments, fluvial patterns and archaelogical records – to provide compelling support for the climate change hypothesis. “The great pioneer of such ‘combined methods’ was D. D. Kosambi [he wrote a popular book called ‘Combined Methods in Indology’] and I see our work as firmly embedded in that paradigm. This is the real strength of this work,” says Adhikari.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

For Earth Day, 17 celebrated scientists on how to make a better world



Observations of planet Earth from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on July 11, 2005. Photo by: NASA.


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Seventeen top scientists and four acclaimed conservation organizations have called for radical action to create a better world for this and future generations. Compiled by 21 past winners of the prestigious Blue Planet Prize, a new paper recommends solutions for some of the world's most pressing problems including climate change, poverty, and mass extinction. The paper, entitled Environment and Development Challenges: The Imperative to Act, was recently presented at the UN Environment Program governing council meeting in Nairobi, Kenya.

 
Girl in Egypt. Photo by: Rhett A. Butler. . Boys in the Republic of the Congo. Photo by: Nancy Butler.The Blue Planet Prize is given for "outstanding achievements in scientific research and its application that have helped provide solutions to global environmental problems." Dubbed by some as the Nobel Prize for the environment, award winners have included such luminaries as environmentalist James Lovelock, biologist Paul Ehrlich, physicist Amory Lovins, economist Nicholas Stern, and climatologist James Hansen, all of whom have contributed to the report.

"The current system is broken," said climatologist Bob Watson, a Blue Planet winner in 2010 and the instigator of the report. "It is driving humanity to a future that is 3-5 degrees Celsius warmer than our species has ever known, and is eliminating the ecology that we depend on for our health, wealth and senses of self. We cannot assume that technological fixes will come fast enough. Instead we need human solutions. The good news is that they exist but decision makers must be bold and forward thinking to seize them."

The ambitious paper arrives only a few months before "Rio+20 Conference: The Future We Want," a global environmental meeting 20 years after the notable Rio Summit. However, expectations for real action at the Rio+20 summit have been dampened by the release of a draft agreement that lacks teeth and, according to critics, allows nations to once again make vague pledges that forestall actual action.

For their part, the Blue Planet laureates call on the world to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, switch out GDP (gross domestic product) for a more holistic measure of national well-being, decouple environmental destruction from consumption, drop subsidies for fossil fuels and environmentally destructive agricultural practices, put a market value on biodiversity and ecosystem services, work with grassroots movements to create bottom-up action, and finally address overpopulation.

"If we are to achieve our dream, the time to act is now, given the inertia in the socio-economic system, and that the adverse effects of climate change and loss of biodiversity cannot be reversed for centuries or are irreversible," the authors write.

Declaring that "the system is broken and our current pathway will not realize [the dream of a better world]" the authors point out that "civilization is faced with a perfect storm of problems driven by overpopulation, overconsumption by the rich, the use of environmentally malign technologies, and gross inequalities." Worsening the situation, according to the scientists and environmentalists, is the dangerous "myth" that "physical economies can grow forever."

A new economy for a new millennium

The current global economy must be re-fashioned from a growth model to a sustainable one that takes nature into account, argue the scientists.

"Since most goods and services sold today fail to bear the full environmental and social costs of production and consumption, we need to reach consensus on methodologies to price them properly," the scientists write.

Many of the world's natural resources are finite (minerals, fossil fuels, and water) and those that are renewable (forests, fish, and food) are easily exhausted when mismanaged and can even be destroyed entirely. Given this, according to the report, economists need to re-define the capital in question to reflect those that are nature-based and those that are human-based.

"Governments should recognize the serious limitations of GDP as a measure of economic activity and complement it with measures of the five forms of capital, built, financial, natural, human and social capital, i.e., a measure of wealth that integrates economic, environmental and social dimensions," the paper argues. The scientists admit that the transition will prove difficult, but it is necessary.

"There is an urgent need to break the link between production and consumption on the one hand and environmental destruction on the other. This can allow risking material living standards for a period that would allow us to overcome world poverty. Indefinite material growth on a planet with finite and often fragile natural resources will however, eventually be unsustainable," they write.

Still, while such action may require phasing out certain industries and economic practices, other green industries could fill in the gaps, providing jobs and stability.

"Costing environmental externalities could open new opportunities for green growth and green jobs," the researchers write, adding that "efficient resource use (e.g., energy or water) saves money for businesses and households. Valuing and creating markets for ecosystem services can provide new economic opportunities. A green economy will be a source of future employment and innovation."

What's standing in the way of such a transition? The report warns that the current alliances between governments and big corporations is undermining the ability of society to change business-as-usual practices.

"The international nature of much of the corporate sector involved in natural resource use means that even the governments of the countries in which they are headquartered have limited ability to influence their actions and decisions," they write, adding that the on-going dependence on fossil fuels "underlies many of the problems we face today."

To succeed, government must be transformed at all levels, the researchers contend.

"At the local level public hearings and social audits can bring the voices of marginalized groups into the forefront. At national level, parliamentary and press oversight are key. Globally, we must find better means to agree and implement measures to achieve collective goals."

But while all stakeholders must be involved, the scientists argue that grassroots movements, bottom-up activism, and local programs should be given more clout.

"There is a need to scale-up the grass roots actions by bringing together a complementary top-down and bottom-up approach to addressing these issues."

The climate crisis

In order to tackle global climate change, the paper recommends a dual strategy of drastically increasing energy-efficiency while deploying renewable energy and carbon capture on a massive scale.

"Generally, developing countries located in the tropical areas of the world can benefit most from solar energy technologies [...] In industrialized countries with very high energy consumption per capita, energy efficiency measures can be very effective," the authors write adding that in developing countries, "economic progress can be achieved by adopting early in their growth trajectory energy efficient technologies rather than adopting obsolete technologies that will generate problems that will have to be fixed later."

They note that clean energy could provide 75 percent of power in many parts of the world, and 90 percent in the tropics, by 2050.

"The main task is to scale-up, reduce costs and integrate renewables in future energy systems. Carefully developed, renewable energies can provide multiple benefits, including employment, energy security, human health, environment, and mitigation of climate change," the paper reads.


As for carbon capture and storage, the authors still hold out hope despite a number of difficulties: "the main task is to reduce costs and achieve rapid technology improvement," adding that, "a number of pilot projects around the world will, we hope, soon demonstrate their viability."

While the scientists acknowledge that adaptation to climate change impacts is a necessity, they write that "the most effective adaptation strategy is mitigation in order to limit the magnitude of climate change."

Interestingly, the researchers note that one can be a self-subscribed climate change denialist and still see the major benefits of clean energy.

"A transition to a low-carbon economy makes sense and makes money for many other compelling reasons [beyond mitigating climate change]. China, for example, is leading the global efficiency and clean-energy revolutions not because of international treaties and Conventions but to speed her own development and to improve public health and national security," the authors write.

Life on Earth

Cutting greenhouse gas emissions rapidly is the overall solution to climate change, but saving life on Earth from extinction is less clear-cut.

"Biodiversity—the variety of genes, populations, species, communities, ecosystems, and ecological processes that make up life on Earth—underpins ecosystem services, sustains humanity, is foundational to the resilience of life on Earth, and is integral to the fabric of all the world’s cultures," the paper's authors write. Biodiversity and ecosystem services also underpin the global economy, they note, though this has been almost wholly neglected by our current economic model.

"The benefits that ecosystems contribute to human well-being have historically been provided free of charge, and demand for them is increasing. Although the global economic value of ecosystem services may be difficult to measure, it almost certainly rivals or exceeds aggregate global gross domestic product, and ecosystem benefits frequently outweigh costs of their conservation," write the scientists.

They suggest a rapid move from "the resource exploitative method of conventional development to resource enrichment method of sustainable development" in the developing world. Currently, development in poorer countries usually implies large-scale industrial projects with massive environmental footprints: mining, logging, dams, fossil fuel exploitation, highway building etc.

"The value of ecosystem services and natural capital must be incorporated into national accounting and decision-making processes across all sectors of society, access to ecosystem benefits and costs of ecosystem conservation must be shared equitably, and biodiversity and ecosystem services must be seen as the most fundamental component of green economic development," the scientists write.

Boy in mokoro boat in Botswana. Photo by: Tiffany Roufs.
Boy in mokoro boat in Botswana. Photo by: Tiffany Roufs.
According to the paper, loss of ecosystem services will soon hit the global economy to the tune of $500 billion every year. Given this, the scientists call for all countries to adopt a "national inclusive wealth accounting system, including accounting for ecosystem services imported and exported, which could stimulate further approaches to ecosystem service marketplace development."

The authors also note that winning the battles on climate change and mass extinction aren't mutually exclusive, because what aids biodiversity will often mitigate global warming, and vice-versa. For example, the scientists throw their support behind the REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) program, which proposes to pay tropical nations to keep their forests standing.

Another issue that underlies the rest is overpopulation. The dramatic explosion of population over the past century has put increased strain on biodiversity, natural resources, food production, and the climate. Targeting overpopulation through non-draconian or compulsory means could provide a multitude of societal benefits in addition to lessening our overall environmental toll.

"The population issue should be urgently addressed by education and empowerment of women, including in the work-force and in rights, ownership and inheritance; health care of children and the elderly; and making modern contraception accessible to all," the scientists write.

The Blue Planet awardees argue that nations must stop seeing environmental issues as disconnected, stand-alone problems since, for example, protecting ecosystems, such as forests, will mitigate climate changes, lessen the difficult of climate adaptation, and preserve biodiversity, amid a host of other benefits.

"A comprehensive, integrated ecosystem approach is a powerful 'tool' for identifying, analyzing and resolving complicated environmental problems, rather than the piecemeal approaches to multifaceted environmental problems that don’t work," the researchers conclude.

A better world

The report doesn't sugarcoat the scale of the problems facing societies today nor the heavy-lifting it will take to transform the global economy, however they say the future will be far worse if action is not taken quickly and decisively.

Girl in Madagascar. Photo by: Rhett A. Butler.
Girl in Madagascar. Photo by: Rhett A. Butler.
"In the face of an absolutely unprecedented emergency, society has no choice but to take dramatic action to avert a collapse of civilization," the scientists write. "Either we will change our ways and build an entirely new kind of global society, or they will be changed for us."

At the end of the tunnel, however, is a better world.

"We have a dream—a world without poverty—a world that is equitable—a world that respects human rights—a world with increased and improved ethical behavior regarding poverty and natural resources—a world that is environmentally, socially and economically sustainable, where the challenges such as climate change, loss of biodiversity and social inequity have been successfully addressed."












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Degraded lands hold promise in feeding 9 billion, while preserving forests

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Sunday, April 15, 2012

Warming takes toll on Utah snow, and it looks to get worse


What Bruce Tremper saw when he ventured into the Wasatch backcountry this spring surprised him.
Bare patches littered the winter landscape where he was used to seeing snow — even on high-elevation ridge tops.
In one of his last forecasts of the season for the Utah Avalanche Center, Tremper noted that this year might wind up being the worst for snowfall in the 67 years that records have been kept at the Alta Guard Station. It was certainly the worst in his 30-year experience of Utah snow seasons.
"I have never seen that before in April as far as I can remember," he said, recalling the recent trip up the canyon. "Last year, there was more snow on that same slope in July than there is this year in the first part of April."
While you could say Tremper’s is just one person’s observation, it echoes the theme of several recent scientific studies that paint a grim picture of Utah’s famed mountain powder.
Climate change is withering the spring snowpack in the Mountain West — the Wasatch Range included — the studies suggest.
That’s the trend discovered by Robert Gillies, Utah’s state climatologist, and colleagues at Utah State University. Their paper, soon to be published in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate, showed a 9 percent increase in the amount of precipitation that fell as rain rather than snow.
It is the most detailed and comprehensive scientific look at snow/rain patterns in Utah so far.
"Our climate trend," Gillies said, "is changing in Utah."
He and co-authors Simon Wang and Marty Booth examined the state’s snow patterns with a variety of scientific measurements — with data points "up there in the millions," according to Gillies.
They relied on the statewide historical climate network, in addition to a comprehensive look at weather patterns and storm tracks. It gave them a way of double-, triple- and quadruple-checking their work.
And their findings also make sense in light of what is known about warming in Utah. According to the Utah Climate Center, during the past four decades global average temperatures have increased about 0.27 degree Fahrenheit each decade. Here in Utah, it’s warmed twice as much.
Why study the issue from so many perspectives? The scientists were determined to discover the real trends within global climate cycles that come and go.
In USU’s Utah Climate News this month, the problem is described as like trying to track the ebb and flow of tides when there are big waves coming in. In the case of the state’s snow patterns, the waves are comparable to big weather features like the El Niño, La Niña and the Arctic Oscillation.
But the Utah scientists found that if you correct for those "waves," it is clear that a bigger fraction of precipitation is falling as rain instead of snow.
In addition, they saw a trend that storms were fewer in number but greater in intensity.
Bigger, stronger computers have made it possible for climate scientists to begin zeroing in on smaller and smaller areas. And what Gillies found with the snow/rain mix echoes what other scientists have seen with a broader, regional focus.
At the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, Synte Peacock’s team has identified similar trends globally and in the Rockies. She, too, has a peer-reviewed paper slated to appear soon in the Journal of Climate that deals with the same trends.

Her group has animated the spring snow scenarios of the past and projected into the future with sophisticated computer models. The alarming results, illustrated in computer graphics, show that there will be years at a time during this century when the Rockies will probably be snow-free by March and April. Spring snowpack could disappear from the Wasatch as early as 2030, the models project.
"It shows," Peacock said, "that in the spring in the Rockies, where we’re used to consistent snow cover through the spring, it’s likely that’s going to be a thing of the past by 50 or 60 years from now."
Peacock pointed out that her projections about the future are based on a worst-case scenario of greenhouse-gas emissions, the human-caused factor of climate change. And, while some might suggest using more conservative projections, she points out that the observed trends in greenhouse-gas emissions — the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide, methane and other key gases in the atmosphere — have closely followed the rapid-warming trend that’s actually been observed in recent years.
In short, reality is tracking closely to what the worst-case computer models have estimated.
"Things would be very different if we reduced our CO2 emissions," Peacock said.
Brian McInerney, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service, has read the Utah Climate Center’s paper, and he agreed that the long-term trends point to less snow and more rain. Although he might not know exactly how that will pan out, he foresees changes ahead for all who rely on mountain snow.
"Our water supply and how we live in Utah is based on the Mountain snowpack," he said. "Without the winter snowpack we can’t live the way we do."
The snow "waits there until we need it," McInerney said. "Then it melts and we store it in our reservoirs until we’re ready to use it.
"If that changes," he wondered, "how do we handle that?"
At the Jordan Valley Water Conservancy District, General Manager Richard Bay says climate change impacts like this have been built into contingency plans even though it is unclear how the trend would affect the district’s ability to serve its 700,000 customers.
If the rain falls at higher elevations than where it’s traditionally fallen, then the district can rely on its reservoirs, such as Jordanelle and Deer Creek, Bay said. If it falls at lower elevations, then the district will look to groundwater storage.
Bay has heard the political arguments on both sides of the climate debate. But his take on the issue is purely practical. He calls the district’s approach "adaptive management."
"It’s hard to distinguish at this point what you can count on and what might happen," he said. "But that doesn’t matter when you’re a water manager because you still have to meet the demands of a growing population."

Monday, April 2, 2012

The man who made a forest

Way back in 1953, French author Jean Giono wrote the epic tale The Man Who Planted Trees. It seemed so real that readers thought the central character, Elzeard Bouffier , was a living individual until the author clarified he had created the person only to make his readers fall in love with trees. Assam's Jadav Payeng has never heard of Giono's book. But he could be Bouffier. He has single-handedly grown a sprawling forest on a 550-hectare sandbar in the middle of the Brahmaputra. It now has many endangered animals, including at least five tigers, one of which bore two cubs recently.
The place lies in Jorhat, some 350 km from Guwahati by road, and it wasn't easy for Sunday Times to access him. At one point on the stretch, a smaller road has to be taken for some 30 km to reach the riverbank. There, if one is lucky, boatmen will ferry you across to the north bank. A trek of another 7 km will then land you near Payeng's door. Locals call the place 'Molai Kathoni' (Molai's woods) after Payeng's pet name, Molai.
It all started way back in 1979 when floods washed a large number of snakes ashore on the sandbar. One day, after the waters had receded, Payeng , only 16 then, found the place dotted with the dead reptiles. That was the turning point of his life.
"The snakes died in the heat, without any tree cover. I sat down and wept over their lifeless forms. It was carnage . I alerted the forest department and asked them if they could grow trees there. They said nothing would grow there. Instead, they asked me to try growing bamboo. It was painful, but I did it. There was nobody to help me. Nobody was interested," says Payeng, now 47.
Leaving his education and home, he started living on the sandbar. Unlike Robinson Crusoe, Payeng willingly accepted a life of isolation. And no, he had no Man Friday. He watered the plants morning and evening and pruned them. After a few years, the sandbar was transformed into a bamboo thicket. "I then decided to grow proper trees. I collected and planted them. I also transported red ants from my village, and was stung many times. Red ants change the soil's properties . That was an experience," Payeng says, laughing.
Soon, there were a variety of flora and fauna which burst in the sandbar, including endangered animals like the one-horned rhino and Royal Bengal tiger. "After 12 years, we've seen vultures. Migratory birds, too, have started flocking here. Deer and cattle have attracted predators," claims Payeng . He says locals recently killed a rhino which was seen in his forest at another forest in Sibsagar district.
Payeng talks like a trained conservationist. "Nature has made a food chain; why can't we stick to it? Who would protect these animals if we, as superior beings, start hunting them?"
The Assam state forest department learnt about Payeng's forest only in 2008 when a herd of some 100 wild elephants strayed into it after a marauding spree in villages nearby. They also destroyed Payeng's hutment . It was then that assistant conservator of forests Gunin Saikia met Payeng for the first time.
"We were surprised to find such a dense forest on the sandbar. Locals, whose homes had been destroyed by the pachyderms, wanted to cut down the forest, but Payeng dared them to kill him instead. He treats the trees and animals like his own children. Seeing this, we, too, decided to pitch in," says Saikia. "We're amazed at Payeng. He has been at it for 30 years. Had he been in any other country, he would have been made a hero."
Help from the government wasn't forthcoming, though. It was only last year that the social forestry division took up plantation work on a 200-hectare plot.
Meanwhile, Congress MP from Jorhat, Bijoy Krishna Handique, took interest and said he would moot a proposal to the Centre to declare the area a conservation reserve under provisions of the Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972. Payeng would be happy.

The New Geopolitics of Global Warming

Climate change is already shaping conflicts around the world--and not for the better

Energy security and climate change present massive threats to global security, military planners say, with connections and consequences spanning the world.
Some scientists have linked the Arab Spring uprisings to high food prices caused by the failed Russian wheat crop in 2010, a result of an unparalleled heat wave. The predicted effects of climate change are also expected to hit developing nations particularly hard, raising the importance of supporting humanitarian response efforts and infrastructure improvements.
Here's a look at several geopolitical hotspots that will likely bear the unpredictable and dangerous consequences of climate change and current energy policies.
Yemen and the Middle East
The Middle East's oil reserves have served as the flashpoint for conflicts, and military leaders are keeping a close eye on Yemen these days, as the country suffers through instability related, in part, to water shortages, which are expected to worsen with climate change.
The region's major energy trade route runs just off the Yemeni shoreline, making it vulnerable to attack or blockade by pirates or other insurgent groups. "It's seven miles from the Yemen coast to the shipping lane. You can row out, and you don't even need an onboard motor," said Neil Morisetti, a rear admiral in Britain's Ministry of Defense and the U.K.'s climate and energy security envoy.
An energy-transport shutdown could cripple the global economy, he added.
The Arctic
Melting sea ice poses several unprecedented challenges to defense missions and the global economy, especially once year-round ice floes disappear - a scenario expected within decades.
"When that happens, the whole ball game changes," said Bob Corell, a lead researcher with the Global Environment & Technology Foundation who has headed the U.S. Office for the Global Energy Assessment and extensively studied the Arctic region.
Corell said Asian countries, including China and South Korea, are already plotting new navigation routes and building cargo ships that can push through seasonal ice. The shift would eliminate some travel that now passes through the Straits of Malacca, between Malaysia and Indonesia, where piracy remains active, but it could also enable Asia to take firm control of global trade.
The U.S. Navy is working on developing instruments that can withstand the harsh weather conditions, and planners anticipate an increased presence in the high Arctic.
Africa
Considering the extent of food and water scarcity throughout many parts of Africa, the continent is highly vulnerable to projected droughts associated with climate change, Corell said. Long-term drought in Sudan contributed to the ethnic cleansing in Darfur, he added. The conflict also exposed how poorly prepared the international community is to respond to such scenarios.
Expect this to play out again and again in the future, Corell warned. "There are going to be Darfur's all over the place."
Bangladesh and South Asia
Between increases in coastal flooding and the drying up of Himalayan glaciers, populations in south Asian countries are already facing disasters and a decline in freshwater supplies.
The Navy's Task Force Climate Change fears that floods or food shortages in Bangladesh could trigger mass migrations to India, increasing ethnic conflict and repression in the region as families compete for resources and survival.
Rippling beyond the subcontinent, the region's manufacturing supply chain, which produces electronics and vehicles for the rest of the world, was already disrupted by flooding in Thailand last year, added Morisetti.

As Climate Becomes Less Certain, So Does China's Ability to Grow Enough Food

Crop losses from climate-related challenges are already affecting the nation's ability to feed more than 1.3 billion Chinese



DUJIADUN, China -- Liu Changxiong has been farming in this southwestern Chinese village for more than a decade, but his years of experience aren't of much use these days.
Last year, his corn seedlings withered at a time Liu expected would be rich in rain. It took twice as many days for his green onions to grow than Liu's estimates. But the 43-year-old farmer isn't the one to be blamed. Instead, experts say, his farming routine is being messed up by climate change.
Sheep farm in northern China Similar phenomena are happening across the nation. In north China, where wheat fields have dominated the landscape for centuries, the crop is becoming increasingly difficult to grow as the land gets drier and warmer. In southern China, droughts in recent years have replaced rainy seasons, drying up rice paddies on a large scale.
Experts are scrambling to understand the problems and to predict how serious they might become. Although forecasts for crop output vary, most agree that the future climate won't be as favorable to agriculture. While China's hunt for adaptation measures is on, little progress has been made so far.
That raises the question of whether 1.34 billion Chinese -- accounting for almost one-fifth of the world's population -- would be able to feed themselves. Currently, China produces slightly less grains than its people consume. Crop losses caused by extreme weather events, insect attacks and other problems associated with climate change are rocking the already delicate balance.
In 2011 alone, droughts claimed grains that could have been sufficient for nearly 60 million Chinese to eat for a whole year, official statistics show.
There is also the issue of rising crop production costs being driven higher by climate change. For one, as temperatures rise, many insects that used to be killed off by the cool of winter now live longer, forcing farmers to spray more pesticides. That increases food prices, and adds pressure on the lives of the poor.
Genetic engineering becomes less helpful
Worse yet, China is losing its ability to produce more. During the past decades, farmers here have enjoyed an explosion of productivity, thanks partly to genetically manipulated crops that are higher-yielding and resistant to pests and diseases. But today, that help is starting to fade away, as it is falling victim to climate change.
"In the 1970s, when we used genetic engineering technology to breed regionally adopted crops, we could enjoy its high yield for years; now that period is much shorter," said Pan Genxing, director of Agriculture and Climate Change Center at Nanjing Agriculture University.
What is defeating the technology, according to Pan, is that the environment in which the crops grow keeps changing due to climate change, making regionally adopted crops no longer a fit for the region they were designed to.
To be sure, not all the effects of climate change are an agricultural curse. For instance, the higher temperatures allow crops to grow in areas which were previously too cold, and lengthen the growing season and, for some crops, the number of times per year they can be harvested. But whether China can take advantage of those changes is another troubling question.
Along north China's Haihe River Basin, where crops can now grow twice a year thanks to warmer climate, local farmers still plant only once, for lack of water, says Mo Xingguo. He researches climate change and agricultural water use at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Experts say that other parts of northern China, which were to enjoy greater numbers of harvests per year as the climate gets warmer, confront the same obstacle. Irrigation there largely relies on groundwater, and to grow more crops would require pumping more water out of wells, an unlikely prospect in a land whose groundwater level in recent years has already dropped dangerously.
"The region's water resources simply can't afford more crop plantings," Mo said.
Less water and more damaging insects
And climate change is continuing to intensify that shortage. During the past half-century, the nation experienced less rainfall and declining river flows. At the same time, global warming is largely causing higher evaporation. Even in places that are relatively rich in water resources now, fears are rising that farmers would lose the essential resource to grow their crops.
That fear is acute in places like Linze County, an oasis city along the Silk Road. The rising temperature is causing glaciers, on which so much of the water supply in the oasis depends, to melt faster.
The glacier water is greening more fields now, but when the glaciers disappear, they will leave the city with a severe water deficit within five years, says a leading scientist at the Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences, Lin Erda, who is helping the locals offset that gap with water-saving agricultural technology.
Besides water deficit, other climate risks are coming into focus. Deep in the cornfields of northeast China's Jilin province, Ma Chunsen, an insect scientist at the Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences, in recent years spotted more holes on maize stems, left by an undesirable visitor -- Asian corn borer.
Such insects are a natural part of the life in cornfields, but they had never bred more than once a year until nowadays, Ma said. Chilly springs in this major corn-growing region used to hold back the hatching of Asian corn borer. Today, that hold is loosening due to the temperature rise.
In addition to lengthening the period that invasive insects can live, scientists say temperature rise has caused outbreaks of insect attacks to happen more extensively. For instance, wheat aphids -- insects that feed on the juice of wheat -- have chewed their way into a larger scope of areas in northern regions than ever recorded.
While insects are taking a ride on climate change to invade fields, crops are becoming more vulnerable to such attacks. If the air's carbon dioxide content reaches twice the current level, as scientists expect to happen by the end of this century, chemicals of major crops like rice, wheat and corn would change, making those crops less able to defend against insects, says Ge Feng, an ecologist studying interaction among insects, crops and carbon dioxide.
'Later is better than never'
It is possible that the vulnerability is less significant in real-world conditions than in lab experiments, since the rise of carbon dioxide is a slow process and crops might be able to adapt to that change, Ge said. The more troubling possibility, he added, is if crops won't adapt to it, and farmers need to use more pesticides in the future.
But there might be a way other than pesticides to kill invasive insects. "If we understand how climate change is affecting crops, insects and the natural enemies of the insects, then we should be able to control insect attacks by adjusting crop planting timing, for instance," said Ma, the insect scientist.
Some steps have already been taken in recent years, including developing models to trace and predict attacks by some major insects like wheat aphids, he continued. But studies on other insects are essentially stymied for lack of money.
"To study all major invasive insect species would require about $2 million [in] research funds each year, but little investment has spent on the subject so far," said Ma. To continue his research, Ma says he has to squeeze money from other projects.
The lack of financial support comes against the background that more studies are needed in order to understand the impact of climate change. Scientists acknowledge that their attempts to use computers to project future agriculture risks are still crude. Some of those computer forecasts, for example, were found to contradict what is happening in the fields. Besides that, all of the previous research efforts didn't answer a core question.
"We have researches on the impact of increasing heat, declining rainfalls as well as other factors of climate change, but we still don't know how those factors altogether affect crops' production," said Pan, of Nanjing Agricultural University. "Agriculture is an ecosystem. We can't just add or deduct research results of each factor, and say that's what climate change has caused."
To draw a fuller picture, Pan has built an outdoor monitoring station where his team can follow all the changes in fields under the influence of climate change and then study their mutual impacts on crops production. Launched in 2009, it was the first study of its kind in China. Today, more programare under way, with rising government support.
The idea behind such support is that if scientists understand the role of climate change in crop production, they can suggest ways to solve it -- though translating scientific findings into practical tips that can be absorbed and put to use by the average farmer might take years.
"It is quite late already," Pan said, referring to China's fresh efforts to search for adaptation measures. "But later is better than never."

Sunday, April 1, 2012

How Will Warmer Oceans Affect Sea Life?



Experiments show that microscopic ocean plants and animals--the base of the food chain--will be impacted
Yes, the ocean is warming. On average, the global ocean is warmer by roughly 0.6 degrees Celsius at the surface and 0.1 degrees at depth. The analysis appears in the journal Nature Climate Change

The extra heat trapped by the pollution from more than a century's worth of coal and other fossil fuel burning is beginning to reach the briny deep. That will have impacts from the survival of sea life to global rates of rainfall. Climate change dead ahead.

OCEAN MICROCOSM: Researchers mimicked ocean conditions in four liter "microcosms" to determine how rising temperatures might affect the marine food chain. 
ocean experimentThis June, the world's oceans reached 17 degrees Celsius, their highest average temperature since record keeping for these data began in the 19th century. And a new experiment suggests that those balmier waters might mean big changes for the marine food chain.

Marine ecologist Mary O'Connor of the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and colleagues at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill set up five four-liter "microcosms" of seawater filled with microorganisms from the Bogue Sound estuary on the North Carolina coast. Over the course of eight days last spring, the scientists then exposed the microcosms to varying degrees of warming and nutrient levels to mimic storm flow into an estuary.

Theoretically, increased nutrients and warmth should fuel the growth of tiny drifting plants known as phytoplankton—as evidenced by seasonal dead zones that form at the mouths of many rivers worldwide when the tiny plants bloom, die and, while decaying, suck up all the available oxygen in the seawater. But the researchers found that increasing temperatures, although initially enhancing the growth of phytoplankton, also allowed increased grazing by zooplankton (microscopic animals) and bacteria, according to the results published today in PLoS Biology.

"As temperature rises, the zooplankton start to grow faster than the phytoplankton," O'Connor explains. "The zooplankton are more abundant and faster-growing, and are able to eat all the phytoplankton in warmer water. This creates a bottleneck in the food chain that could have large implications for the ocean's food web."

Not only does that mean that there are fewer phytoplankton around to suck up carbon dioxide, but it could also mean less food for other grazers. But it does not necessarily mean that the zooplankton will gorge themselves to death; other research has shown that food webs with more animals (consumers) than plants (producers) is sustainable for at least five years. And higher on the food chain it is zooplankton, such as krill, that are feasted on by marine life ranging from fish to whales.

Boosting the number of zooplankton, however, means the overall mass of ocean life declines: the tiny animals metabolically burn 90 percent of the phytoplankton they consume, incorporating only 10 percent. All told, with a 6-degree Celsius rise in water temperature, total biomass in the warmest microcosm shrank by 50 percent, O'Connor reports.

This effect only holds, however, in areas that are rich in nutrients. In the experimental microcosms where the nutrients nitrogen and phosphorus were kept low, those limits defined the relative abundance of plants and animals. And other factors—ocean acidity or salinity—could also play large roles. "The ultimate effect of temperature on zooplankton and consumers higher in the food chain will depend on other ocean conditions that affect resource availability," O'Connor says.

That could mean that nutrient-rich waters in places like the Arctic Ocean will begin to see this food chain shift as the seas continue to warm—and a consequent rise in the number of fish. "Our experiments and current theory suggest that warming in nutrient-rich areas should increase [the number of] fish," O'Connor says. "I think we can figure out how and where climate change may lead to greater fish productivity and where it might reduce fish productivity."

But even in the Arctic, there is typically a nutrient limit, says phytoplankton ecologist Michael Behrenfeld of Oregon State University. "It's a very interesting idea," he says. But an increase in fish harvests "might be a bridge too far with this. There are other factors that need to be considered."

For example, his own satellite-imagery research on the phytoplankton in the North Atlantic reveals that bloom starts in wintertime as a result of deep, nutrient-rich water welling up to the surface. Warming is diminishing that upwelling and therefore the availability of nutrients. "We see a decrease in blooms," Behrenfeld says. "How much can we use [four-liter] microcosms to extrapolate to natural systems, especially natural systems at longer timescales?"

Nevertheless, the experiment provides a glimpse of how the marine food chain might be transformed by climate change. "Worldwide, ocean waters are warming and will continue to warm by several degrees," O'Connor says. "By understanding the effects of temperature in these ideal conditions, we can begin to apply this model to natural systems."

Climate change made the drought worse, scientists say

Several scientists at NASA and the state climatologist say the record-setting heat and drought of last summer in Texas was made worse by climate change.
More than just providing bragging rights that Texas now holds the record for hottest summer ever recorded in the United States, that conclusion adds another layer of uncertainty for water planners.
James Hansen of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University's Earth Institute titled his still unpublished climate analysis, “Perceptions of Climate Change: The New Climate Dice.”
“We conclude that extreme heat waves, such as that in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010, were ‘caused' by global warming, because their likelihood was negligible prior to the recent rapid global warming,” he wrote in the paper that is still undergoing peer review. “We can say with a high degree of confidence that these extreme anomalies were a consequence of global warming.”
Some water utilities across the state are still struggling to meet demand because of the drought, which set the record for a single year. But many more are not ready for a repeat of the drought of the 1950s, which lasted seven years and is considered the worst long-term one on record. Adding climate change on top of that will make planning more difficult, as high temperatures mean more evaporation and less water going into rivers, reservoirs and aquifers.
“They don't know what to expect year to year.” said Tom Gallier, a former manager of the Bexar Metropolitan Water District who has run water utilities across the West. “That is a scary thought for an industry that specializes in thinking 50 or even 100 years out.”
The benchmark for water planning in Texas is the 1950s drought. The San Antonio Water System, Edwards Aquifer Authority and the state use those years to model what is considered the worst-case scenario and then plan accordingly.
The problem is that tree-ring studies, including one of post oaks near San Antonio and another of cypress trees across the state, show more severe droughts have occurred. Climate change is introducing the possibility that droughts will be more extreme.
Last summer is held up as evidence that that is already happening by state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon and Hansen, who is known for his outspokenness about human-caused emissions becoming the driving force in climate change.
Nielsen-Gammon said he took issue with how Hansen's paper could be interpreted to say that climate change was the only cause of the drought but that there was no doubt that the summer was hotter because of it.
Both scientists agree that the year would have been hot and dry no matter what, but that climate change made it worse.
“In other words, nature made it a record,” Nielson-Gammon wrote after reviewing Hansen's paper. “Climate change made it a phenomenal record.”
Even as the debate over climate change continues, water planners have to deal with the reality that future droughts are likely to be more severe than in the past 50 years.
But they can't do their job based on speculation, said Chuck Ahrens, SAWS' vice president of water resources.
“The gold standard is still the drought of record because that is what we know,” he said.
Ahrens points out San Antonio is uniquely situated between two aquifers and is thus less susceptible to the wilder and more frequent swings of rainfall and temperature that climate change might bring.
The limestone Edwards Aquifer to the north can fill up with just a few good rains, giving the city enough stored water in only a few weeks to last a year.
To help San Antonio make it through multiple dry years, SAWS pumps water into the sand of the Carrizo Aquifer to the south, filling it like an underground reservoir. Neither aquifer loses water to evaporation, like surface reservoirs.
SAWS' water plan shows that it can more than meet demand through 2060 even with a repeat of the drought of record, which is the extent of its planning horizon, according to Darren Thompson, SAWS' manager of water resources.
But other parts of Texas do not have such resources.
Spicewood, outside of Austin, ran out of water because it is dependent on wells drilled into a much less reliable aquifer than the Edwards.
The Lower Colorado River Authority will not provide water to rice farmers in South Texas this year because Lakes Travis and Buchanan are still too low, the first time farmers will be cut off by the LCRA.
Across the Panhandle, reservoirs went dry as increased temperatures accelerated evaporation, and rains have not been enough to refill them.
And that was just from a one-year drought.
The 2012 State Water Plan projects losses of $11.9 billion if a drought similar to the 1950s were to occur and projects in the plan are not funded. The estimated cost rises to $115.7 billion annually by 2060, with more than 1 million jobs lost.
So far, the Legislature has not funded the $53 billion plan, which covers only a quarter of the state's needs over the next 50 years.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Ecopsychology in Ten Easy Lessons

Or how I learned to become one with a glacier

by Steven Kotler



Photograph: Steven David Johnson

1.
What are the trees saying? I am listening closely. Listening, as I have been advised, with the whole of my being. Trying to hear a voice, this voice of the trees, this voice I’ve traveled so far to hear. And it has arrived, finally, wandering up through the branches, carried by the wind, this voice so very old. What is it saying? The message is simple and clear. It’s saying: “Hey buddy, you’re fucked.”
Fucked is truly what I am—though perhaps not technically. Technically, I’m bushwhacking across one of the planet’s last true wilds, lost in the southern portion of South America named Patagonia by Magellan. What I wanted was a place untouched by man or machine—a place that has never seen a can of Coca-Cola. Instead, what I got was caught in the worst storm in a decade: freezing rain, blinding snow, winds gusting up to a hundred miles per hour. And this would be bad enough, but the real reason I’m fucked is because ten seconds ago those same winds blew me straight off the side of a mountain.
Prior to that, we’d gotten seriously lost. Our guide, well, enough about our guide. He was as off track as the rest of us. So, not knowing what else to do, I spent a tough twenty minutes scrambling up the side of a waterfall. My hope was that the view from up top would be wide enough that I could sight our much-needed trail. But once up there, before I had time to even look around, a mean blast of cold air ass-smacked me sideways and the seventy pounds of dead weight in my backpack did the rest. I sailed off that perch and through the sky and landed midway down that waterfall, bouncing off who knows what and back into the air and through the sky and smashing face first into a tangle of shrubbery. There are leaves in my mouth and flowers in my nose and a shard of wood through my palm. I have come to Patagonia to get up close and personal with nature—but this isn’t exactly what I had in mind.

2.
I guess if I were looking for someone to blame, I could start with British scientist James Lovelock. In the late 1960s, Lovelock began trying to untangle a peculiar mystery: how is it that life’s delicate balance remains so well maintained on earth? The earth’s temperature, for example, has essentially stayed constant for 3 billion years, yet during this period the sun’s firepower has increased by 30 to 40 percent. Both the chemical content of the earth’s atmosphere and the salinity of her oceans have also remained stable, despite entropy, the second law of thermodynamics, saying things should work otherwise.
Lovelock decided there might be a good reason for all this self-regulation, which he detailed in his 1979 book, Gaia: A New Look at Life on Earth: “The entire range of living matter on earth, from whales to viruses, and from oaks to algae, could be regarded as constituting a single living entity capable of manipulating the earth’s atmosphere to suit its overall needs and endowed with faculties and powers far beyond those of its constituent parts.” In Lovelock’s view, the earth was a “super-organism,” a cybernetic feedback system that “seeks an optimal physical and chemical environment for life on this planet.” He called the system Gaia after the ancient Greek earth goddess.
There has been a long, nasty battle surrounding Gaia with quasi-religious overtones and lots of belligerent name-calling, but some thirty years later, after much corroborating research and some error correction, what was once derided as a “New Age cult” has become almost-legitimate theory. In 1982, the late ecologist Paul Shepard extended this theory into psychology, proposing that if there are innate links between the planet and the human species, then those links should extend to the human mind. Shepard feared that by wantonly destroying the former we are simultaneously ravaging the latter—quite literally driving ourselves mad one clearcut forest at a time.
These ideas are now part of the bedrock of “ecopsychology.” Blending ecology, neuroscience, sociology, psychology, philosophy, environmental science, and other disciplines, ecopsychology concerns itself with everything from how to break the stranglehold of industrial society and reconnect with what historian Theodore Roszak (another of the field’s founding fathers) dubbed the “ecological unconscious” to strategies for overcoming the emotional trauma of confronting what Harvard psychiatrist John Mack once called “the agonizing murder of the life systems on Earth.”
I was seriously curious about ecopsychology but figured if I were ever going to really understand this stuff, it would help to witness such eco-murder for myself. So a plan was hatched. I would fly to Santiago and meet up with old friends and together we would light out down the Carretera Austral, Augusto Pinochet’s mad dream of a Southern Highway. We’d be traversing Patagonia’s Aysén Region, a name created by the Latin blending of the English words ice and end, meaning, quite literally, “the place where the ice ends.”
The ice in question belongs to what is now the Northern Ice Field and the Southern Ice Field, but was once one giant sheet of chilly misery. Millions of years ago, this sheet covered most of Patagonia, with the northern field being the upcountry terminus of that long, cold tongue. Today, with the glaciers in retreat, the northern field has separated from the southern and shrunk to about 1,600 square miles, but it still represents the largest swatch of contiguous ice outside the polar regions. Meanwhile, the Southern Ice Field remains the real monster: 6,700-plus square miles, the third biggest chunk of frozen water anywhere in the world, trailing only Antarctica and Greenland for total acreage. And it’s this ice I’ve come to see.
Nothing seemed more emblematic of eco-murder than the melting of the glaciers. So, over the next few weeks, I would fly, drive, boat, hike, and ride horseback from the rapidly shrinking Northern Ice Field to the rapidly shrinking Southern Ice Field, while putting into practice some of the basic premises of ecopsychology. My goal was to break through industrialization’s repressive barrier, connect with my eco-unconscious, and, hopefully, re-emerge whole. Or eco-whole. Or something like that.
Seriously, what could be so hard?

3.
“That which we call imagination,” writes ecologist David Abram in his ecopsychology primer The Spell of the Sensuous, “is from the first an attribute of the senses themselves; imagination is not a separate mental faculty as we often assume but is rather the way the senses themselves have of throwing themselves beyond what is immediately given, in order to make tentative contact with the other side of things. . . . ” And, since humankind has disconnected itself from nature, if the goal is to make this tentative contact with the other side of things, many feel it helps to start in a place where nature is so completely overwhelming that imagination becomes the only recourse. Well, I found that place, all right.
What are the trees saying? They’re saying: “Hey buddy, welcome to Patagonia.”
First off, Patagonia is immense, as in “the Lord of the Rings prop department would like its sets back, please” kind of immense. Secondly, it’s oddly specific. The shrubbery is either shimmering olive or watery emerald, with nothing in between. The flowers are either, and only, sherbet orange or flaming red. The waterfalls and snowy peaks are pure white. The sky is royal blue; the lakes and rivers are turquoise. The Carretera Austral is volcanic ash and charcoal gray. There are no muddled hues, no middle shades, nothing that says you’re not actually in a cartoon.
Turns out I wasn’t in a cartoon, which is something I learned three days into my trip, atop Fossil Mountain. Apparently, hence the name, there are tons of fossils up there, and also a great view of the Northern Ice Field—the theoretical launch point of our trip. We set out hiking under foreboding skies. Not surprisingly, it started to rain. As we made our way above the treeline, the rain turned to snow. Winter’s worst was not yet gone from the tops of the Andes, so we were trekking across deep drifts and slick ice while ribbons of runoff grabbed at our boots. The snow started to fall harder, and the wind, as it often does in Patagonia, went berserk. By the time we postholed to the summit, forget about seeing the Northern Ice Field. The view was three feet, maybe, and we were soon hiding in a crevasse, barely able to see fossils preserved in the ice walls just inches away. 
Patagonia is considered something of a paleontology wonderland, with most fossils found there dating back some 80 million years. I really wanted to touch “the other side of things.” Confronting the Cretaceous face-to-face certainly tests the upper limits of the imagination, but right then I was too busy trying not to freeze to death. Which is why I occasionally find ecopsychology naïve. When the only connection nature wants to make is a sharp left jab and a hard right cross, then the imagination most humans like best belongs to the guy who invented central heating.

4.
Of course, almost freezing to death on Fossil Mountain is also part of the point. These days, we live comfortably in a climate-controlled world, cut off from wilderness and wildness, from the very unpredictability that, at least poetically, shapes our soul. This change is not without consequences.
In his excellent book In the Company of Animals, James Serpell, Director of the Center for the Interaction of Animals and Society at the University of Pennsylvania, explains further:
The myth that humans were entitled to lordship over the rest of creation was a useful cultural adaptation that greatly facilitated agricultural and economic expansion. It allowed domestic animals to be regarded as objects and merchandise, and it encouraged an aggressive, exploitative attitude to the natural world. Wild animals which were deemed to be useless, or which made the mistake of competing with man on his own ground were universally classified as vermin that needed to be exterminated at every possible opportunity. And uncultivated areas, such as forests, moorlands and heaths, were viewed as bleak and hostile wildernesses that harbored blood-thirsty wolves and legendary monsters. It was man’s duty to tame such areas, to subjugate them and bring them under the yoke of human domination. In other words, the myth was important, and was defended so vigorously, because it had immense survival value.
If you’re looking for some historical mechanism to explain ecopsych’s fundamental principle—that the repression of our ecological unconscious is the root of our discontent—then our species’ blind acceptance of the myth of dominion is a viable candidate. Here’s why: Evolution designed the human brain to shrink complexity with categorization. Our brains slot everything into small boxes. Part of this comes from our primate ancestry in which divisions between “us” and “them” were often critical to survival, and part came about during the development of language when the act of giving names to things required us to first put them in categories. Since those categories were based on what we saw around us, early language was deeply connected to the natural world. The letter A comes from the Hebrew word aleph, which means, among other things, “oxen.” Which is why, when you turn an A upside down, you get a pictograph of an oxen head.
Paul Shepard realized this process of categorization significantly impacted the development of human intelligence for one simple reason: it wasn’t just that language was based on a connection to the natural world; it was that nearly everything else was as well. Humans spent 99 percent of their existence as hunter-gatherers, meaning the entire architecture of the brain had been built atop the scaffolding of the great outdoors. When Shepard talks about humans being driven mad by environmental devastation, he’s actually concerned with what happens when the very things that taught us how to think disappear.
For this reason, I decided to raft the Baker River, a magnificent torrent at the epicenter of the Patagonia Sin Represas (“Patagonia without Dams”) movement. The Baker is the largest river in Chile in terms of volume, and that volume plunges 105 miles from the middle of the Aysén region down to the Pacific Ocean in a blurry rush. In the 1980s, in an attempt to oust socialism and embrace capitalism, Pinochet sold the river to the Spanish company Endesa, who has since partnered with a Chilean utility and formed HidroAysén. Together they have plans for two hydroelectric plants here, and three others on nearby tributaries. Somewhere between six thousand and nine thousand hectares of pristine wilderness will flood, and the power will be ferried thousands of miles, via huge electrical towers, to an area north of Santiago. While Chile currently imports 70 percent of its energy, what strikes many as galling is that this area north of Santiago has countless active volcanoes, constant wind, and ceaseless sunshine—meaning they could easily use these renewables to serve this need and not destroy anything in the process.
The Sin Represas movement is dedicated to preserving this landscape—often described as South America’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge—and blocking those dams. I hear about the dangers of these dams everywhere we go, and get an earful about Doug Tompkins, the founder of the clothing companies Esprit and The North Face, as well. Over two decades, Tompkins has accumulated up to 800,000 acres along the northern edge of Patagonia. Barring one errant tract of land, his purchases stretch from the ocean to the Argentine border, quite literally cutting the country in half. Even though he turned that land into a public park managed by an international trust, the resulting fight was bitter. For many years, Tompkins was a major contributor and vocal spokesman for the Patagonia Sin Represas movement. But lately, because other groups have stepped up (there are now forty-five organizations involved, including the international heavyweight, Natural Resources Defense Council), and because he is worried that his controversial reputation is hurting the cause, his leadership and his money have been in decline.
Not everyone is happy about this. Over breakfast one day, in a lodge on the shores of General Carrera Lake—both the origin of the Baker River and the second-largest body of water in South America—a massive cheer breaks out. People are shouting and singing and dancing and it’s not yet seven a.m. But it’s November 5, 2008, and news of America’s election has just reached Patagonia. Even the gauchos, the fabled Patagonian cowboys, are excited. One of them grabs me as I’m heading into the kitchen for coffee.
“Obama win?” he asks in broken English.
“Yes,” I say.
“Now you tell him to tell Tompkins off his ass.”
“I may not have that kind of influence.”
“Then the next time you come,” he says, “no more Patagonia. What then?”
Which is, after all, the point.

5.
Throughout this trip, one bit of writing I keep coming back to is visual psychologist Laura Sewall’s essay “The Skill of Ecological Perception.” This essay examines our “psychic numbing,” a defense mechanism that “shields us from fully experiencing the latest reports on ozone depletion, increasing pollution, toxicity, poverty, illness, and the death of species.” To grieve this loss, some environmental writers call for dramatic measures, such as private mourning rituals, and the more public “Species Requiem Day.”
Sewall, though, takes a pragmatic neurobiological approach that may require a little background. Every second, our senses gather a gargantuan array of data—far too much for us to process. So our brains are constantly sifting and sorting, trying to tease apart the relevant from the ridiculous. Not surprisingly, basic survival needs take precedence. When examining the world, we generally notice things we are afraid of, want to have sex with, or might make a tasty snack. But this does not leave a lot of processing room for establishing subtler, more intimate connections to the natural world, particularly when combined with all of our other cognitive biases.
Sewall’s solution is the development of five perceptual skills designed to bypass these biases, overcome this psychic numbing, and reawaken “ecological perception.” I’ve been nurturing these skills on my trip through Patagonia, working my way through “Learning to Attend,” and “Perceiving the Relations”—both to help me realize that I am not separate from but rather a part of the world’s ecosystems—and am now paying close attention to “Perceptual Flexibility.” This third step requires, as Sewall puts it, “a fluidity of mind in which the magic of the visible world is revealed by relinquishing one’s expectation and nurturing a freshness of vision.” In short, the point is to be open enough to the natural world that the world begins to show you its secrets.
And, as we’re driving out of the tiny frontier town of Cochrane, I actually see, for the first time in my life, a chicken cross the road.

6.
Villa O’Higgins is at the end of the road, the very last stop on the Carretera Austral, unlinked to the rest of the world until 1999. Taking its name from the military hero Bernardo O’Higgins, who helped liberate Chile from Spanish rule in 1817, this town of four hundred people is a collection of government-issue houses, most painted a two-tone red and blue, set in a small valley surrounded by the tail end of the Andes and the Southern Ice Field. Just beyond town lies Lake O’Higgins, South America’s deepest body of water.
We’d come here to meet a mountaineer named Hans Silva and explore an almost-unexplored peninsula on the lake’s southern shore, beneath the domed peak of Mount Colorado, at the edge of the ice field. By “almost unexplored” I mean that Silva had spent the past five years hiking this peninsula and charting the terrain, and his map is the only one of its kind. Our hope was to hike a route that Silva knew well, but that hope turned out to be snowbound and impassable. Instead, we decided on a “less familiar” path. I might have had the foresight to realize that anything “less familiar” in Patagonia is usually a bad idea, except that the night before we set out, I slept in an unheated cabin, and the temperature dropped by forty degrees, so other things were on my mind.
By morning, my limbs had frozen and a numbing sensation was creeping up my torso. The storm had not abated and the all-day boat trip to get us to Lake O’Higgins’s southern shore didn’t help to warm me up. The ecopsychologist William Cahalan found that using Gestalt therapy to help people reconnect with the “nonhuman world” has a tendency to bring up what he calls “the client’s relationship to ultimate reality, to all that exists, to what some would call the spiritual.” I’m mostly agnostic myself, but Cahalan has a point. With freezing rain and gusting wind and waves cresting near ten feet, the boat spends more time sideways than upright, and, like most of the other passengers, I spend that time praying for mercy.

7.
Of course the boat crossing took too long and by the time we docked the possibility of our making it to our next stop—a hypothetical mountain hut five hours up the coast—was an impossibility. So Silva left us there, and came back a while later with a soldier driving a tractor hitched to a wagon. The soldier was one of the unlucky few stationed here to guard the nearby Argentine border. Somewhere close, the army had an old barracks. We had permission to sleep there. But first we had to climb into the back of the wagon and drive up a steep, bumpy road lined with cliffs. It was black night, there was no gate at the back of the wagon, and our driver was clearly auditioning for NASCAR. 
The next day, I forgot about last night’s hell ride. Forgot just about everything. Two hours’ hike from the barracks, the enormity of the vistas had risen exponentially and I felt swallowed by the landscape, pulverized into unimportance. Was this the ecopsychological breakthrough I’d been waiting for? Did I sense a reconnection to the earth? No, I felt a deep-seated ache, an inconsolable emptiness. Who is this person putting one foot in front of the other? What is he really doing here? I couldn’t answer these questions. I’d vanished completely. Unfortunately, so had the trail.
We’d been following a cow path along a series of high ledges that overlooked O’Higgins Lake in the foreground, with jagged peaks behind it. Then the path was gone and there were only huge chunks of rock, small pockets of forest, and a bad guessing game. An hour later we still hadn’t found the trail. Meanwhile, the worst storm to hit Patagonia in ten years was beginning to make its presence felt. At fifty miles per hour, wind gusts felt like slaps from a frozen mitten; at one hundred miles per hour it was like being tackled by a chest freezer. It was dangerously cold, the trail was gone, and we clearly needed to find that mountain hut soon. I couldn’t think of anything else to do, so I decided to climb up a nearby waterfall to see what I could see.
“Reperceiving Depth” is Sewall’s fourth perceptual stage, and the hinge between psychological insight and environmental action. According to Sewall, we reperceive depth when we recognize that “we are within the biosphere, as opposed to on a planet.” I knew about this level of connection because there were currently a half-dozen ecopsychology tomes in my backpack. And it was this block of books that the wind caught and shoved sideways, leading to the environmental action of me sailing straight off that waterfall.

8.
Nothing is broken, a minor miracle, but neither is a trail spotted. The bushwhacking continues, a freezing rain alongside it. By now, I am starting to lose patience with our guide. The problem is really cultural. Chileans are too polite to consider delivering bad news. Whenever I ask about the mountain hut, Silva smiles and says, “Just over the next hill.”
It takes eleven hours to go “just over the next hill.” We never do find the mountain hut, but we do stumble upon Licho Lagos, a hermit living alone in a shack on a cliff beside O’Higgins Lake. His shack is mostly a few wooden rooms built around a wood-burning stove. I park myself beside the stove and collapse. My plan is to lie very still for a long time, but Licho brews some maté and we stay up late telling stories. Much of southern Patagonia still works on the barter system, and the thing most valued here is a good story. This can mean anything from news from the outside world to the tale Licho tells me about a friend of his who ran into a puma while camping beneath Mount Colorado.
“Just near here.”
“Really?” I ask.
“La verdad,” he says, meaning “the truth.”
The fifth and final step toward ecological perception is “The Imaginal Self,” which essentially comes down to cultivating imagination. I consider asking Licho what he thinks about this step, but before I get around to it, he finishes his story. Apparently, the puma spotted his friend from a ways off and began creeping in slowly. He waited much of the night; the cat attacked just before dawn. It leapt at him with open jaws, but this guy was ready. Before those jaws could clamp down, he shoved his hand past the teeth, drove it straight down the cat’s throat, and on through its stomach. Intestines? Never mind the intestines. He grabbed that puma’s tail and turned the cat inside out.
“Really?”
“La verdad,” Licho says again.

9.
I sleep that night on the floor beside the stove and awaken at four a.m., startled into consciousness by the radio playing full blast. It turns out that reception is best at this hour and, as luck would have it, this is also the hour they play chamamé, the native music of Patagonia. This music, too, requires a bit of imagination. Imagine a mariachi band trapped in a belfry, and you’re getting close.
To get away from the noise, I stumble outside and can’t believe the cold. Just as I’m about to run back to the stove, I notice an iceberg floating two hundred feet away, freakishly blue and the size of a parking garage. Before we went to sleep, Licho had told us that when his father first built the place, the Chico Glacier ended in his front yard. Thanks to climate change, that glacier has since retreated some thirty miles, leaving iceberg crumbs in its wake.
As I stand and stare, the iceberg starts to groan and wobble and calve. Seconds later, a gargantuan chunk sloughs off, sending five-foot waves in every direction. By this time, I’d already spent a few weeks trying to put Sewall’s steps to ecological perception into play, trying to feel a part of the biosphere, trying to understand environmental degradation as psychological turmoil, opening myself to the very devastation our species has worked so hard to ignore.
And this is when it all clicks into place—as I am watching the death throes of this iceberg. This is the real impact of industrial repression, the impact of our environmental arrogance. Once this meltdown is complete, it will not reverse. The freshly melted water will never become ice again, at least not in any time frame that is fathomable in human terms. What does it feel like to witness these end times? Awful. Like murder. Like I’m the one who is melting.

10.
Five hours later, we’ve hiked to within sight of the Chico Glacier—our first glimpse of the southern ice we’d come this far to see. Our hope is to get a little closer, a few miles from here, after we jump in a rowboat, cross a small fjord, and reach a ranch. From there, we’ll saddle up some horses and ride up a mountain for the real big show. Except this is also when the storm’s worst shows up.
By the time we reach the ranch, it’s like blundering through a hurricane. Their radio tells us that the forecast calls for gusts up to 150 miles per hour. In fact, the boat that’s supposed to come pick us up the next afternoon has been grounded by the government for an unknown period of time. For a while it looks like our only way out is a two-day horseback ride through the storm, a daylong bus ride, and a succession of prop plane rides back to civilization. Then we get news about the amount of snow that’s supposed to show up and decide enough is enough—we’re staying put for now.
We make camp in a mountain hut—the long-elusive mountain hut—that sits at the edge of the lake. There’s an old stove inside, and we spend the first few hours stockpiling wood for what could be the long haul. Then the rain mysteriously stops and the clouds part and we drag our sleeping bags out onto a tiny beach. The world is awash in primary Patagonia colors, broken only by the twin brown coats of a mother cow and her calf galloping up and down the surrounding cliffs for, as far as I could tell, the sheer fun of it. Cows dancing up cliffs, like Fred Astaire on a ladder, for the sheer fun of it? I mean, who had ever heard of such things. 
I watched those cows until the sun went down. I was so engrossed that I didn’t notice the storm return. By then it was so dark that it was hard to figure out exactly where I ended and the rest of the universe began. “Where does the ‘me’ begin? Where does the ‘me’ stop?” asks Jungian James Hillman in his essay “A Psyche the Size of the Earth.” And for the first time in a long time, I can’t even begin to answer that question.
Was this, then, the real moment of ecopsychology breakthrough I’d been seeking? Did my repression melt? Was my eco-unconscious unleashed? I don’t know. I know I got to see cows foxtrot on the side of a cliff in a place untainted by the soft-drink industry. I know that Patagonia is a place beyond imagination, and the same might be said for the boundaries of self.
Perhaps Lovelock is correct and we are all one organism. Perhaps Shepard is correct and that by cannibalizing the earth, we are eating ourselves alive. Certainly the idea that we’re fundamentally connected to nature seems plain old common sense. So maybe, just maybe, by cultivating the skills of ecological perception we can find a way to see these things, to notice miraculous value where today most see none. Whatever the case, I now know for sure exactly what John Muir meant when he said, “I only went out for a walk, and finally concluded to stay out till sundown, for going out, I found, was really going in.”